Foto: Providus
Which parties clear the 5% threshold in the 15th Saeima elections may matter more than which party comes first. Providus's analysis sets out seven data-based scenarios and shows that the greatest uncertainty lies not at the top of the table but at the line between entering parliament and falling short. That line determines the distribution of seats, and which coalitions can win a majority after the election at all.
Not one result, but seven scenarios: forming Latvia’s next government following the elections on October 3, 2026
Who clears the 5% threshold may matter more than which party comes first. A new Providus analysis finds that the central uncertainty in the 15th Saeima election is not the race for the first place, but which parties cross — or fall short of — the parliamentary threshold. That outcome could reshape both the distribution of seats and the options for forming Latvia’s next government.
Read the full analytical report “15th Saeima election scenarios” in Latvian here.
View the presentation in English here .
This is not a prediction of one definitive election result. Providus has developed seven data driven scenarios that test how the outcome could change under different assumptions about polling accuracy, turnout, late shifts in party support and the political “red lines” that may constrain post-election coalition talks.
The analysis draws on September polling by SKDS and Latvijas fakti, historical polling accuracy, early-voting figures and Saeima election results since 1993. It runs thousands of simulations for each scenario to assess not only likely seat distributions, but also which coalition majorities could be arithmetically and politically viable.
The 5% threshold is pivotal
In the base scenario, AS — the United List party — is projected to be the largest party, with a median of around 28 seats. Yet the greatest uncertainty lies with parties close to the 5% electoral threshold: New Unity (JV), the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) and Stability! (ST!).
Their results could determine:
- whether the Saeima contains six, seven or eight parties;
- how many votes are “wasted” on lists that do not clear the threshold;
- how large a seat bonus the largest party receives;
- whether a coalition resembling the outgoing governing formula remains possible;
- whether the next government requires three, four or even more coalition partners.
In the base scenario, JV clears the threshold in 67% of simulations, ZZS in 63%, and Stability! in roughly one in four. A seven-party Saeima is therefore the most likely single configuration, but it occurs in only around 44% of simulations. Single-number seat projections can create a false impression of precision: small shifts around the threshold could move several seats and fundamentally alter the coalition landscape.
Can AS reach 36 seats?
The analysis separately examines whether AS could win 36 seats — matching the post-1993 record set by Latvijas ceļš in 1993.
In the base scenario, this outcome has a probability of around 3%; the Providus expert assessment puts the chance at approximately 3–5%. AS would need about 29% of the vote under the base-case level of wasted votes, while the polling average places the party at around 23%.
Whether AS can approach 36 seats depends not only on its own vote share, but also on whether JV and ZZS enter parliament. If both fail to clear the threshold, AS reaches 36 seats in 13% of simulations. If both enter, the probability falls to just 0.4%.
The political significance of this scenario is paramount. At 33 or more seats, AS would need only one medium-sized partner to form a majority, substantially strengthening its leverage in coalition negotiations.
Arithmetic is not enough
The analysis suggests that a numerical majority is possible in most scenarios. But government formation will depend on political compatibility, not just seat totals.
If the publicly declared red lines against Latvia First (LPV), Sovereign Power/Young Latvians (SV/AJ) and Stability! remain in force, AS is included in virtually every viable majority. Two-party governments are highly unlikely; the central expectation is therefore still a coalition of three or four parties.
One of the most important political uncertainties is the relationship between The Progressives (PRO) and the National Alliance (NA). If they were effectively to rule out working together, the coalition space would narrow sharply. In that case, the entry of both JV and ZZS would become considerably more important for the formation of a stable majority.
What to watch on election night
Election-night coverage should look beyond the winning party. The key indicators will be:
- Whether JV and ZZS or any other party clear the 5% threshold
- Whether Stability! enters the Saeima
- The scale of votes cast for lists that remain below the threshold
- Whether AS moves beyond 30 seats
- Overall turnout, particularly in Latgale
- Whether parties reaffirm or soften their existing political red lines once results are known
These factors will shape not only the composition of the next Saeima, but also whether coalition negotiations are relatively straightforward or prolonged and fragile — potentially delaying budget decisions and other major policy choices.
The analysis is based on publicly available polling and election data, simulations and explicitly stated assumptions. It should not be read as a forecast of one certain result, but as an assessment of possible election outcomes and their political implications.