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The Seer VS Baltics 12

Nouriel Roubini, an economics professor at New York University, has just joined the ranks of those who think the Baltic states should devalue.

Iesaki citiem:

"Baltics, Bulgaria next for devaluation", said yesterday's headlines. Here are some quotes:

“If fundamentals are out of line you cannot maintain a fixed exchange rate, you’re going to eventually have a currency crisis,”

“The Baltics are under pressure and Bulgaria’s currency board is under pressure.”

"Given the economic conditions are getting worse, these pegs are under severe pressure and you have the beginning of a currency crisis,”

And finally,

“The IMF made a mistake with the Latvia program of allowing them to keep the peg as it doesn’t make any sense because the currency is overvalued,”

Now this is quite serious. If you don't know who Roubini is, you should check one of my earlier entries. I am afraid Roubini's word is going to carry a lot of weight with the international financial community. I guess the first test is whether Parex suceeds in its bid to rollover 80% of its syndicated debt to 2010-2012...

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Komentāri (12) secība: augoša / dilstoša

Tmp author bdd174d29c18893f8040d1ca0cd30c40b76ac587432bcc3f16557adc2b366733
Tmp author bdd174d29c18893f8040d1ca0cd30c40b76ac587432bcc3f16557adc2b366733
Gabriel Lorenzi

I agree with that economics professor. Looking forward to reading new articles. Keep up the good work. <a href="http://www.dicasnewyork.com.br" >New York</a>

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Liene 09.02.2009 16:15
I thought that Latvia would have to devalue Lats already in Autumn 2008. Maybe we should have done that then...

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V Dombrovsky 09.02.2009 10:42
mikelis:

Sorry, I misinterpreted your earlier post. On a more careful reading I do find a substantial shade of sarcasm :)

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mikelis 08.02.2009 17:52
Vjačeslav,

i didnt seriously believe that you were out to make money by saying this, or krugman, or roubini or now aslund anders. i just get tired of this being always the first question sometimes, one cant say anything without having some sort of financial bet going on in the market.

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V Dombrovskis 08.02.2009 15:20
mikelis:

Unfortunately, I don't know Prof. Krugman and Prof. Roubini personally. But I've read lots of Krugman's work (I don't mean blogs here) and a bit of Roubini's stuff. I seriously doubt that they make these statements to make money in the market.

Academia is about getting to the truth, seeing what others can't see and, in the end, being right. This is the currency of the academic world, it's what makes people like Krugman and Roubini tick, not some bets in the money market against a tiny country. The bottom line is that what they're saying is as close to "independent opinion" as you can ever get. So, to economize on the use of words, why don't we call it exactly this - an "independent opinion".

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V Dombrovskis 08.02.2009 15:09
Liene:

No, I don't play in the money markets. But I see it a sign of progress that you asked. I mean, you're absolutely right to question the motives of those who call themselves 'experts'. Would 'experts' from the real estate industry tell you that prices might fall? Can experts from the banks have stakes in certain outcomes? Keep asking, Liene!

Would I win from devaluation? I might, if this were the right thing to do. If it were, it would end it all faster and save lots of nerves to lots of people. It would also let me spend more time on my real research interests. The problem is I don't know whether it's the right thing to do. But I am trying to understand...

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Normunds 07.02.2009 18:59
Swedish banks would not let us devalue the Lat - too much risc that euro credits will not get repaid...
nds-roms.us

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Juris Kaža 07.02.2009 16:00
Hmm,
Why isn't the NeoKGB, the Latvian Security Police, requesting international arrest warrants for Roubini and Edward Hugh, whose blog had a long essay arguing for (here I am going to imitate "Sviesta Kino", who substitutes -- got a tasty cake-- instead of death or in this case. deval****) giving a tasty cake to the lats?
And, by the way, Vjačeslav, they may come after you too, for mentioning giving a tasty cake to the national currency :):):)?

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Veiko Spolītis 06.02.2009 21:48
It is serious and Estonians think about the devaluation seriously already. However, if they would do it it woulod collapse the lat, and Estonian actiona would not find approval among the IMF officialdome + the "Baltic unity" would be in tatters...

Time for the irresponsible bunch of naive and complacent politicians at the helm of Ms Latvia is ticking too slowly away....unfortunately:)

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mikelis 06.02.2009 18:01
well obviously he'd win, because one can only talk about economics if one has a bet somewhere in the market and is trying to sway public opinion. Maybe Roubini and Krugman are betting in this market, maybe there is no independent opinion.

m.

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Liene 06.02.2009 16:47
Vjačeslav, do you play in money markets? Would you win in case of devalue?

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