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The Seer 6

Here is an interesting article about Nouriel Roubini, many of whose prophecies lately came true.

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Article about Nouriel Roubini
The passage below should ring a bell:

"Throughout the decade, one emerging economy after another was beset by crisis, beginning with Mexico’s in 1994. Panics swept Asia, including Thailand, Indonesia and Korea, in 1997 and 1998. The economies of Brazil and Russia imploded in 1998. Argentina’s followed in 2000. Roubini began studying these countries and soon identified what he saw as their common weaknesses. On the eve of the crises that befell them, he noticed, most had huge current-account deficits (meaning, basically, that they spent far more than they made), and they typically financed these deficits by borrowing from abroad in ways that exposed them to the national equivalent of bank runs. Most of these countries also had poorly regulated banking systems plagued by excessive borrowing and reckless lending. Corporate governance was often weak, with cronyism in abundance."

PS This post only comes in English, sorry.

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Komentāri (6) secība: augoša / dilstoša

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Komentētājs

Wii Homebrew 22.04.2010 10:08
Thanks for taking the time to discuss this, I feel strongly about it and love learning more on this topic. If possible, as you gain expertise, would you mind updating your blog with more information? It is extremely helpful and beneficial to your readers. http://mywiihomebre.com

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Komentētājs

Wii Homebrew 22.04.2010 10:07
Thanks for taking the time to discuss this, I feel strongly about it and love learning more on this topic. If possible, as you gain expertise, would you mind updating your blog with more information? It is extremely helpful and beneficial to your readers.

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Komentētājs

Tony 22.11.2008 11:11
Blame Game - blame borrowing when the ones that hand out the loans to USA are just as much to blame. www.wiihomebrew.com

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Komentētājs

mikelis 20.08.2008 10:22
kirsh and k- the point is that any big current-account deficit is dangerous and just because Swedish banks are here doesnt make Latvia invulnerable to market turbulence. A severe credit crunch or massive bank run could be devasting.

K writes:

``This week The Economist writes with amazement, that somehow Latvia has managed to make do without a currency devaluation.''


seems a bit of an misstatement, since they wrote about the `gloomiest predictions' and not their own.

-they list inflation, current-account deficit, and quick economic growth recently, followed by the popping of the bubble.

``For a country with a pegged currency, that is scary. Yet the gloomiest predictions have so far proved unfounded. For example, Latvia has not been forced to devaule.''

Latvia needs a sober analysis of how to proceed and not the constant replay that nothing bad can happen here and we can grow at high rates into infinity.
m.

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Komentētājs

K 20.08.2008 09:21
Krish, there is, however, a gap between what the situation is in Latvia and how the situation is viewed abroad. This week The Economist writes with amazement, that somehow Latvia has managed to make do without a currency devaluation. The Bank of Latvia has always sworn that it has no intention or plan to that effect.

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Komentētājs

Krish 19.08.2008 20:26
i dont believe parallels with our country can be drawn here, his mentioned economies are obviously much, much larger and besides the Latvian economy is fully supplied with money from Scandinavia, and I haven’t heard that its running low or that they are considering pulling out. I don’t believe we should be worrying about anything else than how to get the optimism back in to the consumers and make him work better.

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